The fourth quarter ended on June 30 2009 and its that time of the year when corporates announce their financial results and shareholders anxiously wait for the amount of dividend that is going to be paid to them. The Karachi Stock Exchange is fluctuating in a specific range as the market is waiting for the quarterly monetary policy to be announced by the State Bank of Pakistan on July 25 2009 and the Trade Policy to be announced in the next week. More will however depend on how many basis points the State Bank of Pakistan cuts the interest rate. The market is expecting a 100 to 150 basis point cut.
There are strong indications that the interest rate will be cut however the exact number is not clear as Pakistan is bound by the IMF and has to keep its budget deficit and inflation in check. The recent cut in the interest rate of the National Savings Scheme also shows that the SBP will be cutting interest rates.
There is all possibility of a short to mid term rally in August 2009 if the interest rate is cut as per market expectations and there is sure profit to be made if leading shares are purchased at current levels. However, stranger things have happened and not all goes as expected so take a good look around and do your homework before buying any share.